Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 14.093141 16.417668 18.947014 21.896048 25.232015 28.880545 33.164542
2024-12-22 9.919812 12.955099 16.581325 21.198076 26.881303 33.608079 42.127907
2024-12-29 7.933565 11.418613 15.920847 22.079336 30.187582 40.391868 54.081927
2025-01-05 6.388787 10.030789 15.071897 22.408157 32.631795 46.169812 65.205142
2025-01-12 5.188899 8.826232 14.186727 22.430736 34.505373 51.210623 75.654377
2025-01-19 4.294921 7.870325 13.451914 22.474622 36.286659 56.142852 86.216184
2025-01-26 3.932598 7.671536 13.794479 24.104348 40.459686 64.702554 102.432724
2025-02-02 3.519349 7.299270 13.783339 25.135877 43.762815 72.174645 117.523798
2025-02-09 3.159428 6.948509 13.740420 26.074193 46.952142 79.643704 133.035093
2025-02-16 2.715954 6.353068 13.177894 26.045573 48.529064 84.677288 145.084199
2025-02-23 2.263380 5.647699 12.306688 25.353423 48.893125 87.755403 154.197195
2025-03-02 1.859345 4.958174 11.356792 24.386281 48.655611 89.779798 161.672635
2025-03-09 1.615054 4.582321 10.988431 24.500131 50.401360 95.325323 175.430342
2025-03-16 1.362571 4.132690 10.403438 24.127572 51.234059 99.391632 187.020758
2025-03-23 1.263360 4.040491 10.565914 25.263956 54.970252 108.725331 208.058706
2025-03-30 1.125683 3.815817 10.398056 25.689491 57.363201 115.804475 225.564429
2025-04-06 0.982783 3.541716 10.072586 25.735527 59.002207 121.605481 241.122144
2025-04-13 0.860326 3.294905 9.771403 25.792488 60.652117 127.503856 257.135925
2025-04-20 0.840956 3.357313 10.241736 27.629216 66.075396 140.732701 286.995058
2025-04-27 0.789302 3.305309 10.412611 28.790081 70.167630 151.650341 313.124846
2025-05-04 0.736975 3.238483 10.534478 29.844822 74.105078 162.469095 339.551209
2025-05-11 0.648069 3.021587 10.219209 29.812825 75.692531 168.800630 357.885527
2025-05-18 0.545833 2.724469 9.630418 29.035191 75.570328 171.739068 369.927033